Does The Silence Speak?
The volume of discussion regarding Mitt Romney as a Veep possibility has dropped to near zero. There has been a notable drop in all Veep prognostication, but in what little discussion is going on Romney seems to be completely off the radar now. This precipitous drop in Romney-talk has come directly on the heels of the “evangelical warning” of a couple of weeks ago. One must wonder if there is a cause-and-effect relationship.
Now, given Richard Land’s leadership – weak, but far more sober, concerns that we looked at on Friday – if you are John McCain, you must certainly include the “evangelical warning” issue in your deliberations. John McCain, like all nominees in a hard fought primary, finds himself needing to unite the party if he has a chance to win the general. Given McCain’s history with Evangelicals, that is the place where he has to do the greatest work to heal the rift, or at least build a sufficient bridge to allow him to win. If you are McCain, caution towards Evangelicals is called for.
So, from the standpoint of a Romney supporter, this is where the weakness of Land’s discussion of the bigoted 20% becomes so important. If the majority of the reasonable within the Evangelical fold are willing to speak out strongly against the bigoted 20%, then a Romney Veep nod begins to make sense because McCain knows he can rely on the vast majority of Evangelicals. But, when you get tepid statements like those Land gave, McCain has to view Evangelicals as “soft” when it comes to a Romney nod and respond accordingly.
What at is really insidious about that bit of political calculation is that in the end, the reasonable (and most powerful) Evangelical leaders have first ceded their personal authority to the bigoted minority, since they are now effectively setting policy. Second, by contributing to losing not only the primaries, but also, in essence, the race for Veep, they reduce Evangelical political influence in general.
So, where are we? Well, where we have been since this whole thing started: the biggest loser in a Romney loss is Evangelicals.
There is another related question. If Romney does not get the Veep job, will the Tim LaHayes of the world try to take credit? The answer is absolutely! Because, as we analyzed above, the current Evangelical leadership will have effectively ceded authority to the bigoted minority and hence to the minority’s spokesmen, it would be natural for those spokesmen to try and leverage that into a larger leadership role.
What is sad is that they will be attempting to take command of a sinking ship. The current leadership could right the ship – they could in fact bring the ship successfully into port, cargo intact, payday perhaps delayed, but nonetheless preserved. All they have to do is be willing to throw the pretenders “overboard.”
It is really time for Evangelicals to get serious if they want to have real political influence.
Lowell adds a little speculation: What to make of all this? Richard Land made his statement knowing that McCain would hear it. Land therefore knew he might well be torpedoing Romney’s chances for veep. It was a pivotal moment, potentially, and Land must have known that.
Of course, land Might have said:
I think Mitt Romney would be a solid choice. Of course I have significant theological disagreements with Romney’s religion, but I have disagreements with many religions. Romney’s positions on the issues Southern Baptists care about are right, and he is very well-positioned to help Senator McCain win the presidency. I recognize that some Southern Baptists have strong theological disagreements with Governor Romney, but those are unrelated to how he would serve as vice president, and I hope everyone will see it that way.
Land would say that in my dreams, I guess.
If he did, and if Romney got the nod, then Land and his group would be a faction that can get things done, rather than stopping things from happening. They seem to prefer the latter role. Along the way, they reinforce their image as intolerant, “my way or the highway” people. That’s certainly how this blogger sees them. It’s not an endearing image.
There very likely have been private discussions between Land and the McCain campaign as well. In his public statements I doubt Land was trying to influence McCain against choosing Romney. I do think Land was trying to preserve his own skin. I wonder if, in private, Land said to McCain’s peeple, “I like Romney, and you can pick him, but a lot of Evangelicals will stay home on election day if you do.” If so, the effect is the same.
All in all, it’s difficult to find much positive in this situation. The most qualified candidate, in my view, is being stopped because of his religion, and that of his ancestors for four or five generations. The group that is stopping him is shooting itself in the foot and making it less likely in the future that it will have the clout necessary to help promote true conservatives for the presidency. They will be seen as a bunch of mean and nasty people who played religious politics and got away with it.
At a deeper level, people like Richard Land and James Dobson will be seen as cowards who stood by and let that happen because they are terrified of their own constituencies. The hit to their credibility will be lasting.
In many ways, 2008 might be called the year of “The Great Evangelical Crack-up.” We’ll see.
John responds: I agree that this may well the the cycle that marks the end of significant evangelical influence in electoral politics, but I think it is due purely to ineptitude. I seriously doubt there have been private communications between Land and McCain, Dobson and McCain or McCain and any other Evangelical leader.
McCain does not like us that well. He is not going to reach out to us, it is really up to us to reach out to him, and I am not seeing that happen either. At bottom, the problem is too much ego at play here. McCain has too much as do these Evangelical leaders. McCain always has had, and the Evangelicals view themselves as kingmakers.
Sad fact is McCain got here without them, so why should he reach out to them. He got there because they played religious politics, split the coalition and let him. It is the Evangelicals that have a choice now. Either jettison the bigot, go to McCain hat-in-hand and join the team, requesting a Romney, or in essence give McCain and excuse to marginalize them instead of them marginalizing the bigots.
Posted in Candidate Qualifications, Issues, Political Strategy, Religious Bigotry | 2 Comments » | 
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