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Examing Evidence in Detail

Posted by: John Schroeder at 04:00 am, November 19th 2012     —    2 Comments »

Friday, we mentioned some post election analysis on the Hugh Hewitt show that could indicate and anti-Mormon problem.  The interview is with Brad Miller of CitizenLink.  Here is the transcript of the segment:

HH: Hugh Hewitt joined now by my friend from CitizenLink, Brad Miller from Focus on the Family Radio Studios in Colorado Springs.  Brad, yesterday we were talking, we are still doing election aftermath.  And there were a number of states in which social issues were on the ballot, like Colorado, with legalization of dope and marriage in four different states.  And turnout numbers on those matters were higher than for Romney.  Give people a sense of what these numbers are and what you’re trying to figure out.

BM: Yeah, Hugh.  In our post-election analysis we were really trying to do some soul searching here because, of course, you’ve heard, the punditry, punditry class talk about, you know, how and why the Republican Party should moderate its position on social issues and in some circles they’re saying jettison them altogether — esentially, just becoming Democrat Lite. And, you know, we want to figure out, okay, are our positions so passé that frankly we have no place to go? and, of course, you and I pull to the standard that those issues are true truth and you just can’t throw them off like, you know, just on a whim.  And so, we began to dig into the numbers here, Hugh, and it really is fascinating.  When you look at Maine, Maryland, Minnesota and Washington, states where marriage was on the ballot.  You know, in Maine, the same-sex the marriage veto lost by 6 percentage points.  Romney lost by 16, so it performed 10 points better than Romney did in Maine.  In Maryland, it was a 4 point loss for the veto of same sex marriage in that state.  Romney lost by 24 points there.  In Massachusetts, assisted suicide–we won that, Hugh, by two points and Romney, in his home state, loses by 24.  In Minnesota, lost by three and Romney wins, pardon me, loses the state by 8 percentage points.  Now, Minnesota is really fascinating because when you look at the overall national numbers here, Hugh, Romney received 1.9 [million] fewer votes than John McCain did in 2008.

HH: Well, that number is coming down, Brad.  I don’t if you saw the latest thing.  It’s down to about 535,000 now. [ed: it is even lower since this aired.]

BM: Is that right?

HH: Yeah.

BM: I had not seen the latest.  Thanks for that.  But, Romney got 3-1/2 percentage points more than McCain did in Minnesota.

HH: Yeah.

BM: Now why is that?  Now, we can’t make a direct correlation or causation at this point, but what I’m saying is that the evidence leans toward the fact that these social issues are not the things that people ran from in this election or that certainly kept them at home sitting on their hands.  We believe that these issues must remain in the party platform, must remain part of the bedrock, you know, gut level conservative principles that we’ve held to for the entirety of the Republican Party’s establishment and so, you know, it’s critical that we maintain this, Hugh.  And I know that, but –

HH: I do.  I’m just curious when people say what was the best bit of news that you got?  I want something to hang on to.  What was it from this cycle?

BM: For us, I mean, parental notification in Montana wins by 40 points.

HH: Yup.

BM: Wins by 40 points.  Now, Romney won Montana as well, but he won by 13 points.

HH: So there is a significant number of Democrats, I think what you’re saying, who hold traditional values positions, on marriage, on life on marijuana control.  So those Democrats have to be persuaded that when it comes to electoral politics, this is a seamless garment because they’re obviously disconnecting the impact of the courts of the presidency upon these issues.

BM: We certainly have a heavy lift ahead of us in terms of education the electorate in terms of the consequences of their votes.  I’ll tell you this though, Hugh, one area where I really believe we missed the boat– and we’ve missed it the last couple election cycles — and it’s the bridge and the intersect with the Republican Party and Hispanics has always been social issues.  It’s been marriage and it’s been life and it’s been religious freedom.  And we made it, our partner groups and others that we work closely with on the ground, continue to beat the drum with us that they wanted to educate Hispanic voters on economic issues and our view of that from the very beginning was there’s no way you’re going to educate them and bring them to our side on those issues between January and November.  It’s just not going to happen.  Use the bridges that are already there.  The bridges of life, the bridges of marriage and the bridges of religious liberty into those communities where we can speak the same language and then maybe, just maybe, we glean off, we pull off more votes from that community.

HH: Thank you so much, Brad Miller of Citizen Link.  Go to the Citizen Link button at Hughhewitt.com or go directly to citizenlink.com.  Continue to work for those values.  There’s lots of work to be done and they actually have some great news which we’ll continue to talk about in the days and weeks ahead.  Stay tuned.  It’s the Hugh Hewitt Show.

Generally speaking, social issues performed better than Mitt Romney.  Not conclusive, but certainly indicative that social conservatives had a problem with Mitt Romney that could very well have been his religion.  More analysis of this data is needed.  First step is to “correct” the percentages for the African-American vote.  We need raw numbers and exiting polling data.   This is a big project to do well and we are going to ask for your help.  Please help us find the raw numbers for the presidential, and the proposition in question, in each of the states cited – this should be at the Secretary of State’s website for each state.  Please leave links in the comments.  Then we need the demographics of the electorate from each of those states, that means exit polling data – some of the state may not have such data, which means we’ll have to use the raw state-wide demographics and turnout models.  Again, please leave links in the comments.  This will be harder to find.

Once we have done all this we still will not be able to separate what was anti-Mormon bias from a simple distaste for Romney personally, but at least the evidence will be stronger.  This’ll take a while.  Thanks for your help and sticking with us.

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