Article VI Blog

Well, it did not take very long last week for everyone and their uncle to start talking about the POTUS ’12 race after the midterms were over.  Voice of America gave it a light touch on Wednesday.  The Washington Post focuses on the real story of the moment which is, how weak is Obama right now?  (On that subject, a political consultant in Britain obviously does not have deep insight into Obama’s personality.)  The Hill surveys the field reasonably well.  Tom Diemer at Politics Daily also reviews the field and starts to add a little personality to the story.

There was some polling reported as well.  CNN did a poll that was reported by Taegan Goddard and David Brody.  Rasmussen had some interesting numbers as well.  FoxNation reported on a Harvard poll.  And finally, TPM uses a poll to try and say “Romney’s in trouble.“  Which to my way of thinking is very supportive of the other polls that show Romney leading for the nomination – TPM is going to shoot at the most likely nominee of the moment.  They are not alone either.  And. of course, someone is trying to figure out when the announcements will come.

But the story line that appeared most frequently and with the most fervor was the one we mentioned last Wednesday – the “near coronation of Sarah Palin.”  NPR shaped its story on the field around her.  Ed Rollins says not to underestimate her.  Michael Gerson says she is a problem, but in doing so puts her at the center of the discussion.  The left leaning papers in London have her leading the field, and the right leaning ones place here at the center of a “Republican civil war.”

There is some individual candidate news.  Depending on if you are from the right or the left, Mike Pence‘s resignation from Republican leadership is to set the stage for a run at POTUS or IN governor  – respectively – or president.  Given that Romney’s religion is last year’s Christmas present — it has been played with and is now a little boring — they are starting to ask questions about others like John Thune.  Tim Pawlenty is going to run on repealing Obamacare – and how does that separate him from any other Republican?  And how did Rick Perry‘s name get involved?  Some are wondering if Sarah Palin does not talk about her faith enough!?

Mitch Daniels keeps saying things that seem designed to make people angry with him.  Rumors around the Indiana statehouse are that he wants to run and is being urged to run, but his wife is not the least bit interested.  My guess is he is trying to get those urging him to back off so he can, at a minimum, have a reasonable discussion with his wife about it.  However, some of his supporters seem to want to draft him into the job.  It’s now officially silly – someone has to come at this job with 100% commitment and enthusiasm or now matter how talented they are, they will not do it well.

Mitt Romney, alone among the hopefuls, is not going to talk to FoxNEWS.  Which lays out how I think the early analysis of the Republican field should be made.  I think the field can be divided into two serious categories and one third that FoxNEWS is sort of forcing upon us with their “12 in ’12″ series.  Let’s start with that last category:

Wishful Thinking

My guess is some of the names in the FoxNEWS list of 12 are there because Fox wanted to get to 12.  One example would be Chris Christie.  Christie has flat out said he is not running.  Jim DeMint is another in this category.  He is a force to be reckoned with inside the Tea Party movement, but not next to Palin and I think he would defer to her anyway.  Finally there is Bobby Jindal.  Jindal is a man with a bright future, although he is rapidly being eclipsed by Marco Rubio.  Nonetheless, “future” is the operative word.  Jindal has a troubled state to run and seems to be committed to doing so.  Someday perhaps, but not now.

So now let’s turn our attention to the next category:

Media Candidates

This category is made up of the hopefuls that generate more heat than light.  They capture the media; in some cases they are the media.  They are typically people making money right now by being possible candidates.  Here’s the list:

• Sarah Palin
• Mike Huckabee
• Newt Gingrich
• Rick Santorum
• Haley Barbour

Note that all of these, with the exception of Barbour, are currently employees of FoxNEWS.  Santorum is not on the FoxNEWS list, but I have added him because he has admitted publicly to be thinking about it.  This means that both the people themselves and the primary news outlet for the right leaning populace have a vested interest in having these people in the mix.  Barbour is not a media guy at all really, but he is very much a kingmaker type.  If he runs it will be for reasons other than actually wanting the job – which is the characteristic at the deep heart of this category.

The next category is:

The Serious Players

This is the list that I hope springs to mind of any serious person thinking about who will be the Republican nominee.

• Mitt Romney
• Tim Pawlenty
• Mitch Daniels
• John Thune
• Mike Pence

These are all people that are serious about governing and could be serious about being president for the sake of doing the job and doing it well.

And now:

Some Analysis of the Categories

I think the Republican nomination race is going to come down to a serious battle between the leading Media Candidate (Sarah Palin) and the leading Serious Player (Mitt Romney).  Simply put, as our society becomes increasingly media saturated, image often matters more than substance.  Barack Obama may be the primary testimony to that fact.  His governance has been nothing like his media and campaign image.  In point of fact, there has been little governance – the man is simply in over his head.  In a different era his functional weaknesses would have been both more exposed by the media and the voters would have cared more to find out about them.  Media saturation is not all the media’s fault – much of it belongs to us as consumers of media.  The news media are just making a buck giving us what we want.

The problem for the Serious Players is there cannot be too big a divide between the media image and the governing reality or they will have no credibility in office.  That precludes to some extent running a very savvy media campaign just to get the job.  One can hope that the public has learned the lesson about “Image voting” based on the the last election, but there are indications that the Tea Party is just the Republican version of a media play.  Mark Halperin was on Michael Medved’s show last week saying that the Obama camp firmly believe that they will win in ’12 because the Tea Party will force the nominee so far right that Obama can claim the center.  I’m not sure the public’s memory is that short – but even if it is, Obama likely finds himself is a similar trap.  Pelosi’s run for Minority Leader is a demonstration of just how much of a stranglehold the far left has on the Democrats.  When the clearest signal in the last 100 years has been sent to them to moderate, they are dipping into the same far left-wing well.

On the plus side, I see the media candidates competing with each other so hard that they prevent each other from gaining a clear plurality and open the door for a Serious Player.  If I am a Serious Player one of the things I am doing right now is making friends with these people so endorsement become a future possibility.

It is going to be an interesting couple of years and as the field solidifies, this categorization is likely to become invalid – but it is operative for now.  What’s religion got to do with it?  Well, we’ll look at that it the next post in this series as we examine the contention that the Tea Party is a reimagined Religious Right.

Lowell adds . . .

It is hard to add much to John’s fine analysis.  I keep reminding myself that two years is an eternity in politics.  Even one year is a long time.  Example:  Who knew anything about Barack Obama in November 2006, just after the Democrats had recaptured Congress by wide margins?  Look how much the world changed between then and 2008, when that same unknown U.S. Senator won the presidency.  And now, look how much the world has changed since November 2008!

By next November Romney and the others on John’s short list will have announced their candidacies and Iowa and New Hampshire will literally be only weeks away.   Will someone else have emerged who is barely even on the political radar screen?  We shall see.  I am wondering if Haley Barbour will make a move.

Real Clear Politics, by the way, has already started the talk about announcements.

As for Mitt Romney, the Mormon issue will be very visible, I think.  It’s simply catnip for many in the news media.  Mormon involvement in Proposition 8 is a great hook for lazy reporter, for example, looking for an easy story to write.  The difference in the 2012 cycle might be that The Question is old hat to most people:  “Yes, Mitt Romney’ a Mormon.  So what?  The country’s in an economic mess, and I want someone who I think will clean that up.”

Watch this space!

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