Brief Morning After Reflections On The Mid-Term
California and The Nation
As a Republican, I am very happy this morning – as a Californian, not so much. The losses for Governor and Senator are disheartening, but when combined with results on the propositions they represent fiscal suicide. Virtually all restraint, what little there was, on runaway government and its unchecked spending have been removed. These results from a state which, were it not sovereign, would already be bankrupt leave me simply speechless.
There is but one happy conclusion that can be drawn. A state that is this daringly and heedlessly liberal in the face of a massive conservative tide nationally is the state that passed Prop 8. Same sex marriage may be the biggest political loser in our nation’s history since slavery. Only heavy-handed, aristocratic judicial fiat can bring it to pass.
It is time for proponents of same sex marriage to pack it in. They have made tremendous gains in terms of social acceptability, but they are not in the foreseeable future going to get more than civil unions.
What About POTUS 2012?
Well, the snap analysis is almost unanimously and glowingly a near coronation of Sarah Palin. But then snap analysis lacks the depth of significant insight and the events to transpire between now and then. Palin’s influence was significant this cycle, no question – virtually assuring she will run. But beyond that there is a lot of ground to cover. We have seen wild swings in the voting public’s mood in just two years – who knows what the next two years have to hold. Others endorsements did very well too, even if not quite as publicly – but then a FoxNEWS contract and a forthcoming TLC show will do that for you.
It’s just too early to analyze this with any meaning. (Well, except for the fact that Barack Obama is currently ripe for the pickin’.) So listen to what people are saying, but not too hard. Let’s see what happens in the next few months.
What About Religion In This Election?
Well, some say the Religious Right is dead, and this election is the nail in the coffin. Some say the Religious Right is the hidden hand behind the Tea Party. All I know is it is probably some of both. Simply put, there is a general, though not universal, correlation between religious conviction and political conservatism. It is, however, unlikely that religious people will ever organize into a stable political force save on an specific issue or measure basis.
I think the heart of it lies in the fact that to do so means churches must become political organizing centers and they are very resistant to that because frankly, they are institutions with a different purpose.
The other thing is that I think religious people are learning that in some sense we have been winning battles but losing the war. Many of the liberal agenda items that upset us so – abortion, same sex marriage – are not the heart of the problem; there is something deeper at play. We must fight the political fights in order to keep that deeper battleground open, but straining an analogy just a bit, the political fights are diversions and protecting the supply lines. They are not the front.
I think the Religious Right is growing smarter and will therefore be more effective in the future. Sometimes clandestine special forces platoons can do what entire battalions of armor cannot. It’s not always how much force you bring to bear, but how you bring the force to bear that matters.
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JamesB on 03 Nov 2010 at 11:03 am #
I reallize this isn’t an economics blog, but it seems to me that California is going to be a very interesting test case.
With the conservative house, California won’t be getting a federal bale-out. So what will they do? They have a very large deficit, productive citizens are leaving the state, they have nearly the highest tax burden in the country.
Democrats like to blame Republicans for cutting the government that the Democrats create. But they only do that, glad that it doesn’t have to be them who does the cutting. They don’t get that option this time. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown moves agressively to the right – especially with the public unions. Reality has a way of focusing the mind.
Of course, I have no reason to believe this. Except that no alternative seems to exist.
Communist countries got around problems like this by building walls to hold people in – kind of like prison. California doesn’t have that option.
richalger on 03 Nov 2010 at 11:05 am #
What does POUTS mean?
John Schroeder on 03 Nov 2010 at 12:49 pm #
richalger: “POUTS” means that I am still very bleary eyed after a long night of returns. Thanks for the edit.
James: I think Federal receivership likely – but I don’t want to see it until there is a Republican administration. Governor Moonbeam turning right is about as likely as President Obama sounding genuinely humble.
CarlH on 03 Nov 2010 at 4:29 pm #
The 40% or so of Californians who are still sane have my very sincere and deepest sympathies–the rest of the state has gone completely bonkers fiscally, but all Californians (and a lot of non-Californians, as well) will be the victims. It is truly a sad thing to watch, particularly because California for so very long embodied the very best of the American Dream for an awful lot of Americans, including many who have never lived there but visited often (like myself).
I expect that the rush to the exits (both by businesses and productive families) to accelerate and that the general deterioration of quality of life outside of the gated communities and insular enclaves to continue.
Doug King on 03 Nov 2010 at 8:23 pm #
As a native Californian who left the Golden State 15 years ago, I extend my sympathies to the millions of sensible people who live there but who are outnumbered. I remember the great place it used to be and the fierce pride I felt in calling myself a Californian. Now I just shake my head.
If there’s a silver lining in a second term for Governor Moonbeam, maybe history will repeat itself. Jerry Brown and the arrogant Sacramento political class unknowingly inspired the tax payer revolt known as Proposition 13. Maybe another term of Governor Moonbeam’s shenanigans will boost the Tea Party movement in California and help restore sanity.
coltakashi on 04 Nov 2010 at 10:28 am #
Yes, it seems like California is going to experience at the state level the kind of fantasyland government that the Federal government has had the last two years. Apparently the Federal mishmash has not awakened enough Californians to the hazard of thinking that you can legislate away economic reality. California is taking on the role of a Cuba that persists in its left wing mantra even as the Soviet Union repudiates it. Like the movie/TV/gaming/amusement park industry, California has long had a lifestyle of mixing fantasy with business. For all the popularity in California (where I worked for 5 years) of the theme of a “sustainable economy”, California seems to be moving toward the least sustainable financial situation in the country.
Chino Blanco on 05 Nov 2010 at 7:59 am #
It is time for Cali opponents of same-sex marriage to face the cognitive dissonance and admit that John’s analysis is upside-down. It’s the work y’all did in 2008 to pass Prop 8 that helped set the stage for the deeper blue California that John woke up to and that prompted this post. Seriously. How many close races might’ve gone the other way if the GOP brand in Cali wasn’t so tied-to-the-hip with anti-gay nutters in the minds of so many Cali voters?
TVHall on 06 Nov 2010 at 1:24 pm #
White Chinaman: “Specious drivel…backward analysis.”
[Yawn]
Next?
Chino Blanco on 07 Nov 2010 at 10:33 pm #
Wow, thanks for the serious response, TV.
The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) lost 68% of the races it backed.
As BTB commenter Ben notes: “That’s losing more than winning in any mathbook.”
TVHall on 08 Nov 2010 at 1:34 pm #
Would that be the same “anti-gay nutters” that voted, by a clear majority, to codify the definition of marriage which has been in place throughout all of history?
Every time a change in the definition of marriage has been put to a vote of the people it has been defeated.
As BTB commenter Ben notes: “That’s losing more than winning in any mathbook.”
Wow, thanks for the non sequitur, CB.
Serious indeed.
JLF9999 on 08 Nov 2010 at 5:54 pm #
The Religious Right is history? I doubt it. Just look at who some of the Tea Party stars are: Southern Baptist Marco Rubio, Evangelical Tim Pawlenty, Southern Baptist Mike Huckabee and Evangelical Sarah Palin. There are others too. These folks are just getting started. They will of course be heroes to their respective denominations and garner enormous support. Of course the money is too good for the right wing social policy zealots to not promote their agenda, and fund raising, during the presidential election season. Don’t forget that for many Evangelical candidates, their is no better way to raise money in some locals than to bang the drum about the evils of Mormonism and Mormon candidate Mitt Romney.
Chino Blanco on 08 Nov 2010 at 10:38 pm #
Not sure how Ben’s comment qualifies as a non sequitur. If you don’t think NOM’s poor showing is a meaningful metric, just say so. Maybe you’ll find CNN’s national exit poll results (17,500 respondents) more interesting:
Q: Should Same-Sex Marriages Be Legally Recognized?
A: Yes, according to 66% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans.
Here’s the real non sequitur:
John admits that same-sex marriage has seen “tremendous gains in terms of social acceptability” but from that observation somehow concludes that it’s “time for proponents of same sex marriage to pack it in.”
Huh? Pack it in when a third of GOP voters already agree with us? Nah. Ted Olson and Ken Mehlman aren’t gonna be packing it in anytime soon, and neither will the rest of us.
TVHall on 09 Nov 2010 at 10:08 am #
It doesn’t. Your argument does.
I did, with substantial evidence.
Let me see, CNN exit poll or actual ballots cast. Gee, that’s a tough one.
I do agree, however, that you (CB) shouldn’t “pack it in.” That hole isn’t nearly deep enough yet.
Chino Blanco on 10 Nov 2010 at 10:57 am #
Actual ballots cast? I assume you’re referring to previous ballot initiatives. Congrats on winning those. And kudos to all your candidates who won election this year in California.