It’s Starting To Get Serious…
…Mostly Because Romney’s Book is in Pre-release
Speaking of which – Where’s our copy? I have one on order, will get it the day of actual release, but…. Sigh, just a humble blogger.
It starts with a discussion of the electoral map at Utah Policy. The analysis which they present is by someone else and it is based on Palin as the presumptive and defines a strategy on how to beat her. Wrong approach, the only two reliably in the running at this point are Romney and Pawlenty. Both could choose not to run, but Palin has to choose to run – big difference.
The other thing about the analysis is a discussion of Iowa. Romney needs to stay very clear of Iowa. Even if he has a shot at winning it, which he does in many possible opponent scenarios – his participation there this time will give the press too much fodder to raise The Question again. Iowa is a no-win scenario, even if he wins.
Romney’s appeal is in it’s breadth. As noted in statistics like these presented by Race42012. Romney polls well among Christian Conservatives. Not as well as Christian identity possibilities like Palin and Huckabee, but well. He polls far better than anyone else among other Republican groups. That it what he needs to play on. Which also means he cannot, as some would try to contend, regionalize his campaign. Yes, Huckabee owns the South right now, but it’s way too early. The story of his commutations lasted a single news cycle – wait until the ad makers get a hold of it in a campaign.
The astute reader may ask, “If he cannot regionalize, how can he skip Iowa?” Well, there is skipping and there is skipping. He should not stay off the ballot ala McCain and Giuliani last time, rather he should simply put in a token effort, as if to punch the Iowa ticket, but de-emphasize its importance. The idea is to create the image that win, lose, or draw Iowa just does not matter that much – which in reality, it does not.
But The Real ‘Meme’ Out Of the Book Pre-release…
…seems to be that “Mitt is reinventing himself…again.” That hurts as it seems purposefully designed to play on the “flip-flop” (”inauthentic”?) charge that resonated strongly last time – based , at least in part, on the religion issue as we have documented endlessly here. Here it is from Taegan Goddard and here the LATimes. Goddard is quoting the “Boston Phoenix” – a newspaper devoted to the gay lifestyle that has had Romney in its sights since he opposed the imposition of same sex marriage by the Massachusetts Supreme Court when he was governor. Nah, there is no agenda here at all.
Charles Mitchell at EFM had a great response, and he cites Ben Smith as the source of the meme – but Smith is again citing the “Phoenix.” David French at EFM had a fantastic rebuttal:
Good leaders respond to objectively existing national conditions. It’s not all positioning and spin and “moves” to this or that part of the political spectrum.
I could not agree more. In the first place, Romney did not necessarily play himself that far right last time – the press did, and they did so intentionally to stir up the Mormon issue. But any smart leader is going to deal with the problems facing the nation now, and social issues are in serious second place at the moment. If we do not arrest the fiscal slide we are currently on, there will be no reasonable semblance of a nation upon which to have the social debates upon. It’s not hard to do that math.
There is a difference between “re-invention” and shifting emphasis. Anybody who has ever run anything bigger than a breadbox knows that to run it different things will attract your attention at different times. If I run a factory, at times I emphasize productivity, because I want to improve margins. But, if parts start coming back for quality reasons, you can bet I am going to start paying less attention to production and more to QC.
But Speaking of David French…
Please read this. I certainly do not have the service-at-arms angle, but I understand completely, agree completely, and add a hearty AMEN!
And While We Are Getting A Little Sentimental…
…just a little. I understand the pain many people feel about Prop 8. But the law is the law, and that is what it is up to the court to decide – THE LAW. And frankly, I object strongly into turning our courts into some sort of therapeutic exercise. Dispassion in the law, not passion, is what insures equal treatment under it.
Finally…
This is an interesting church/state issue. I mostly find it sad that downtown churches of other faiths have grow so weak that they no longer can be effective players in re-development. The Mormons have to be doing something well.
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CarlH on 12 Feb 2010 at 12:12 pm #
Given the actual Gallup poll numbers, there seems to be way too much early speculation about how Romney and Palin compare, as exemplified by this headline on a TownHall piece by Allen Caeden:
Gallup: Palin and Romney top two contenders for 2012
The headline itself is doubly curious to me, given who topped the poll, let alone Gallup’s own emphasis on the no-name alternative in the Obama matchup.
The real message for Republicans (and the party itself, in particular) from these poll results, in my opinion, is that there is a real opportunity here given Pres. Obama’s falling numbers–but it’s one that the “stupid party” is very capable of blowing entirely precisely because of the big divides within the party–and a huge number of self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who don’t have a “just off the top of your head” preference at this point. (BTW, this Gallup poll was before Palin’s speech to the “Tea Party Convention.”)
As much as I may feel like the country would lose out on incredible leadership from a Mitt Romney candidacy, I am reluctantly coming to the conclusion that Romney may best serve the GOP and the country right now as a party-builder in a background role (like his efforts on behalf of Sen. Brown’s campaign). The “Romneyesque” meme, and the all-too-easy, but missing-the-forest-for-the-trees, attacks from both the conservative and religious “purist” wings of the GOP (to say nothing of the glee with which the left and the MSM spout the same rhetoric), may have rendered Mitt Romney as unelectable as similar constant carping (from what I would characterize as the elitist intellectual and establishment “purist” wings of the GOP) have seriously hobbled Sarah Palin. Do these folks have no clue how damaging their crusades are to the GOP cause generally and are undoubtedly cheered, and even abetted by, the Democrats and theh Left, who can only be pleased as punch (to quote Hubert Humphrey) that factions within the GOP are all too willing to do the dirty work to undermine the strongest potential GOP challengers? I say it’s fine to work for other candidates, but find someone to work FOR and with, don’t just cast aspersions (and worse) on the only people our side getting any real attention!
On another note, thank you for posting the link to David French’s recollections of his stint in Iraq. It brings to mind one of my favorite quotes from Michael Lewis’s long article, The Ballad of Big Mike, from 2006 in New York Times Magazine and adapted from his book The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game (and the basis for the current hit movie, “Blind Side”):
While I suspect Lewis included this quote as a slam (supporting his “great Mormon grade-grab” characterization of the use of online courses from BYU’s independent learning program to help qualify Michael Oher to play NCAA football, a side-story not included in the movie), I have taken the first half of Tuohy’s comments as a theological conclusion, not as a personal attack on me as a Mormon, and the second half as vindicating the importance of working together with “nice people” of all stripes (and despite theological differences) toward common, worthwhile goals. May Sean Tuohy’s and David French’s tribes increase!
coltakashi on 12 Feb 2010 at 5:55 pm #
As David French demonstrates, it has long been normal for Mormons to be accepted in the military as fully qualified to fill any role, including that of senior commander, without regard to their religious affiliation. If Mormons, Evangelicals, and others can serve in mutually supportive capacities to defend each other and defend freedom in the armed forces, why is there reluctance among some Americans to see Mormons in the same light in our common political endeavors?
I am a Japanese-American. If I had lived in the US during World War II, that in itself would have been sufficient basis to be imprisoned without trial for three years. Thousands of young JA men were released from the concentration camps to allow them to serve in the military, most in the highly decorated 442nd Regimental Combat Team in Italy and Germany, and many (like one of my mentors, a retired professor) who served in intelligence and interrogation assignments in the Pacific. Their military service proved they were deserving of full citizenship, including the right to serve in elected office.
African-Americans have served in every war in American history. During the Civil War, a hundred thousand enlisted for the Union; a few even fought for the confederacy. Their noble and brave service tipped the scales of public opnion and laid the groundwork for the amendments to the Constitution that provided equality under the law, finally over the course of a century, for all African-Americans, culminating in the election of a man with an African father being elected president.
Mormons have served honorably in the US military since 1847. Many have graduated from the service academies, and a few have gone on to win the highest honors or be promoted to general officer rank. They have earned the right to full citizenship in America, including being elected to any office of public trust.
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