Fascinating . . .

. . . well, it is the biggest box office grosser of the YTD, and he’s not really “Captain yet.” Besides there is much fascinating to read, and it is difficult to make a complete picture out of all of it.

Let’s start on a personal level. LiveScience via US News gives us the following head/sub-head:

New Surprising Results on Abortion and Religiosity

Young pregnant women from private religious schools are more likely to obtain abortions than their public school peers.

And Dan Gilgoff’s blog on that same outlet tells us:

. . . a recent but overlooked Pew survey that finds “moral values,” cited by more Americans as their top issue than any other concern in the 2004 exit polls, is now tied for third place as issue No. 1.

These stories seems to spell a difficult time for the social conservative. The Gilgoff piece makes some sense given the current state of affairs in the world, it is only natural that the economy would be #1, but health care as number 2 and defense against terrorism way down the list?? That I find different than expectations. But moral values at #3 seems reasonable, and when we read the abortion piece, we find the headline a bit misleading:

Despite the absence of a link between personal religious devotion and abortion, religious affiliation did have some important influence. Adamczyk found that conservative Protestants (which includes evangelicals and fundamentalist Christians) were the least likely to report having an abortion, less likely than mainline Protestants, Catholics and women with non-Christian religious affiliations.

“On the other hand, simply attending church or finding religion important does not appear to shape a young unmarried woman’s abortion decisions,” Adamczyk said. “But many very liberal-minded people who seem themselves as prochoice still attend church.”

Oh. This we knew. Lots of people attend church with lots of different values. This is not news, save for the fact that it was in a poll. So maybe things are not quite what they seem for social conservatism. Especially when you consider these two pieces. Gallup reports:

Republican Base Heavily White, Conservative, Religious

And according to RCP, a new CNN poll tells us:

A new poll of the potential 2012 GOP primary field from CNN/Opinion Research Corp. shows a log jam of three candidates at the top. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and current Alaska Governor Sarah Palin are in a statistical dead heat according to the survey conducted May 14-17 with a 4.5% margin of error

OK, once again, not really surprising. Romney, Palin, the Huckster are really the only names left standing from last time so it is natural that they would lead the pack right now, and the Gallup poll just says Republicans have not quite figured out how they are going to rebuild just yet.

One is tempted, at first glance to put all of these together and conclude, as the press has since last November, and some inside the GOP as well, that the party has to move left to regain its footing. And yet, when you look at the Gallup poll on the base such might just violate the first rule of parties: don’t tick off the base.

On the one hand, the mood of the country always changes – it will swing back right. The question is, how soon, and how much damage will be done in the interim? Well, the current administration is spending its political capital as fast, perhaps faster than it is printing currency, it’s going to dry up pretty quickly. But we cannot control the general mood of the country so back to what the party should do.

I do believe the GOP is going to have to find a way to at least sequester a portion of its base – the rabid, “God said so,” social conservative. You know the ones I’m talking about. The ones that would not consider Giuliani because he was pro-choice, and Romney because he was “a heretic.” We are watching the Dems spend their political capital on their ideology when circumstances are demanding a different set of priorities. In the end that will likely make this administration’s victories Pyrrhic.

The nation cannot afford to have two parties engaged in such practice.