Jay Cost thinks McCain should pick Romney right away, and listed the pros and cons of a Romney veep selection. One of the cons relates to The Question:

Romney will alienate evangelicals. Maybe, but my feeling is that evangelical voters are going to vote. Again, turnout will be high if the election is close. So if they vote, who will they vote for? Barack Obama? Bob Barr? Ralph Nader? No, no, and no. Evangelicals are usually Republicans, which means we should expect them to vote Republican. Plus, Obama would never touch the “Mormon issue,” not even with a ten-foot poll. That will minimize its salience.

Not much there but gut feeling, but interesting nonetheless.

What really intrigues me about Cost’s piece is his confidence that Obama will not raise the Mormon issue. Of course the candidate himself will stay far away from that, but what about his supporters? I think it is foolish to assume that the Jacob Weisbergs of the world won’t use the “issue” somehow.

But Weisberg’s just a pundit. What’s more interesting to me is the likelihood that political dynamiters like Garry South, who’s already tried to inject religious bigotry into the race here (more about Mr. South in this post). Other Democrat consultants have analyzed the issue and are ready to provide data and analysis. Mark Mellman is one example.

On the religious right, we have people like Gary Glenn, an ardent Romney foe and Huckabee backer. Huck’s people have no reason to see Romney and McCain succeed. Nothing is stopping them from doing their part to get some hard-core Evangelicals to stay home on election day.

John adds his own thoughts: It should go without saying that the Obama campaign will not use The Question directly should Romney get the veep nod.  As we saw last week, direct attack on the religious front is political poison.  In fact, any sort of discriminatory discussion in the race is a two-edged sword.

With the notable exception of Dan Quayle, and perhaps Dick Cheney in 2004, veep discussion is usually background noise. But it probably will not be this cycle. With both candidates having significant weaknesses inside their own parties their choice in running mate is vitally important, and will play a significant role in shaping the campaign.

So, what will happen in the event of a Romney #2 nomination? Well, as always we have to divide between the left and the right. There will be religious attacks from the right as we saw last week. They will be loud, they will get press, but they will be impotent. Their only effect will be to further erode Evangelical influence inside the Republican party. I think the party is smart enough to distinguish between the smart and not-so-smart Evangelicals, but the press is not, which will limit the effectiveness of even the smart ones.

I am of the hope that Evangelicals will see this writing on the wall at the convention and the smart ones will take steps to emphasize the distinction between themselves and the bigots, but if this is not played smart Evangelical political influence stands on the brink.

As to the left, we will doubtless see much of what we saw during the primary - no direct attacks, but the press surrogates will be very busy. I do not think we will be treated to the raft of Mormon descriptive pieces, emphasizing the distinctives with a tone of “weirdness” like we did in the primary; that bell has rung. What we will see is more general diatribes against conservative religious influence from the punditry that will cycle down, because they cannot help themselves, into the grossly bigoted statements of a Weisberg.

There is a sub-text shaping up in this cycle — largely based on Obama’s somewhat specious claims of religious influence — of what constitutes legitimate religious influence in politics. On the right is the worldview crowd and on the left is the social action crowd.  Interestingly Mormons embody the best of both schools of thought. Their heterodox theology results in a worldview, if not an after-worldview, that is pretty similar to your typical conservative Evangelical.  And yet the social action activities of the CJCLDS far outstrip many, if not most, evangelical protestant churches.

Thus, I think the left-leaning punditry’s attacks in this fashion will, in the end backfire.  If they attack Romney’s faith, they will in some sense attack their own candidate’s claims of religiosity - but again, I am not sure they can help themselves - like a bull seeing red, in their minds genuine religious conviction must be attacked - which should tell you something about the depth of religious influence they see in Obama.

I think the most devastating attacks on Romney’s religion will come in the context of discussing McCain’s age. They will be “throw-aways.” Things like, “Well, with president THIS old can we really afford to have a zealot from some erzatz religion half-a-heartbeat away from the Oval Office?” That kind of stuff we will hear, without any further elucidation, from self-appointed surrogates throughout the campaign if it is indeed a McCain/Romney ticket. Such attacks can readily be dealt with by any moderator or interviewer asking for explanation, but given that in the MSM the moderators and interviewers are on their side, look for those statements to sit there with perhaps a pregnant pause.

I am not so bold as to predict outcomes here. I am perhaps more optimistic that the average Republican insider. Despite everything I still have some faith in the native intelligence of the American people.  It is slow to engage, often not thorough, but John McCain is so clearly a superior choice to Barack Obama that I think it will be apparent to more than it will not be.

Should Romney get the nod, religion will be an issue. Will it be effective?  I don’t think so. It worked in the primary only because there was a place around which the opposing forces could rally. Obama does not bring such a place to the table. Will it be ugly? Oh, I think we can count on that. But I also think that reflects more on them than us.
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