Huckabee The Spoiler: But Is He A Religious Spoiler?
Why is Mike Huckabee staying in the race for the Republican nomination?
- Is it because of Huckabee’s anger over Romney’s comparison advertising in Iowa?
- Is it religious bias?
- Is it personal ambition?
I think it is all of the above, in varying degrees, and that’s why there is an Article VI angle to this very political story.
Here’s some interesting background. I listened to the Dennis Prager program while driving in to work today. Prager’s guest was Ari Fleischer, President Bush’s first press secretary. The two had a fascinating exchange on the state of the Republican race.
Fleischer made no bones about Huckabee’s role: Huck’s staying in the fight in order to be the “spoiler.” Other than that, Fleischer said, “I can’t see for the life of me why he stays in this race.”
Dennis Prager responded (my paraphrase):
Evangelicals would vote for a Jew or even a Hindu, but a lot of them would not vote for a Mormon. Over time, however, they have decided simply to swallow that, vote for Romney, and worry about the theological differences later.
Now back to those reasons for Huckabee staying in the race. Prager’s right that most Evangelicals have not heeded Huckabee’s siren song; but some of them have, just enough to make a huge difference in the outcome.
Anger over Iowa? That’s a political issue, and I’d love to address it. But not on this blog.
Religion, however, is definitely within our scope here, and ambition’s tie-in with religion is also fair game.
So my sense (and that’s all it is) is that Huckabee is not motivated by anti-Mormon sentiment, and that he’s not one of those Southern Baptists who cannot abide the notion of a Mormon serving as president. He is reportedly from the more moderate wing of that faith, and he’s been in politics a long time and understands the realities of that world.
And it is precisely that combination of politics, faith, and ambition that really tells the story of why Huck’s staying in. It’s because he understand, and knows how to play, the intersection of politics and religion.
Huck knows, McCain knows, and Romney knows that if it were not for Huckabee’s continued presence on the ballot on Super Tuesday, Romney would be a much more formidable candidate for McCain to beat. McCain still is not pulling anything close to a majority of the conservative vote. Flesicher, citing exit polls, said that 17% of McCain’s Florida vote came from independents who registered as Republicans in order to vote for McCain. But because Huckabee siphons off a sizeable chunk of conservative “values voter” votes, Romney struggles and McCain wins a plurality of votes. “Values voter” is pretty much just another way of saying “Evangelical voters.”
Thus all the scenarios look good for Huckabee:
- McCain is the nominee, Huck gets the VP slot on the ticket. (I do not think McCain will do this. He may be a terrible Republican, but he is not stupid.)
- McCain is the nominee, and Huck has lots of clout in McCain’s campaign — and may even be the king-maker at the GOP convention, although I think the nominee will be decided before then.
- McCain wins the presidency, and Huck gets to be Secretary of Something, with lots of future political possibilities for himself.
- McCain loses the general election (a far more likely outcome) and Mike Huckabee is then the political voice for Evangelicals in the USA. He can do a lot with that position, including run for president again in 2012.
I could go on and on (and some will say I already have). My point: This is all happening because Mike Huckabee has chosen to play the religious card in a very big way.
Who would ever have predicted this?
Posted in Political Strategy, Religious Bigotry | 8 Comments » | 
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JLFuller on 31 Jan 2008 at 3:05 pm #
Pardon my disillusionment for minute but I am considering what might happen if Mitt does not get the nomination. I have been thinking about this for some time now and I am ready to make a recommendation. I think we should all vote for Hillary. It is a sure-fire way to galvanize the Republican Party for mid-term elections. It shouldn’t take but two years of Hillary care and Bill for us to come to our senses. And as we watch our country spiral downward and get caught in a whirlpool on its way to the sesspool we can be entertained by the selections from a jury pool. Think 2010 and be hopeful.
4thnephite on 31 Jan 2008 at 7:32 pm #
That is what happened in the ‘94 election. Republicans must get their act together and that is not behind McCain. I’m listening to Ann Coulter on Hannity and the other guy. I’m afraid she is right all of those people who have endorse McCain are expecting a job in Washington.
The people I have listen too will either not vote or vote for Hillary if McCain gets his way.
God help us all, the Book of Revelation is coming true in our lifetime
4thnephite on 31 Jan 2008 at 7:35 pm #
I wish to add, I like the fading away of the Presidential candidates, and for some odd reason I can see our Constitution rights fading away.
shashatina on 01 Feb 2008 at 6:08 am #
huckabee’s religion is behind everything because it defines him. When huckabee stated that the Mormons devil worshipped in the beginning of the campaign season, then that is and still now is huckabee’s religious and political definition. He is now and always will be a Mormon hater and will sell his soul rather than support a Mormon. I don’t think the pundits realize how much the baptists hate Mormons. It is freightening to hear their sermons about not listening to the devils. Wake up America. Huckabee is trying to do an end run around our political system. He has pulled the wool over your eyes. Romney for President. By the way, I was born and raised in the south and understand what the Bible belt really means.
coltakashi on 01 Feb 2008 at 6:52 am #
Conservative political commentators have begun to discuss the fact that McCain is ahead in the delegate count even though he has not won the majority of conservative votes. My guess is that he figures that conservatives won’t have an option to the right of McCain, and would hardly pick the Democratic nominee over him. But that assumes they won’t just refrain from voting for president, or even write in someone else as an expression of protest and disgust. McCain clearly has worked to place himself in the middle of the political spectrum in the Senate. His major legislative achievements have been in conjunction with Democrats, and his actions like forming the Gang of 14 to finesse confrontation over judicial nominees and preserve filibusters show that he places the power of the Senate as an oligarchy above any ideological goal.
Indeed, I think the McCain-Feingold laws on campaign contributions are designed to uphold oligarchy rather than democracy. The laws preserve the communicative power of incumbent office-holders, of the commercial media, and of celebrities. As we saw with Michael Moore, as long as you can get people to pay to see your ads, there is no limit on how much advertising you can do against a candidate. As Oprah Winfrey has shown, there is no limit on how much a celebrity can donate in terms of joint media exposure. Just as gun control is primarily a shifting of power toward those who exempt themselves from regulation through criminal activity, campaign finance control is a shifting of power into the hands of those who don’t have to buy advertising to get their ideas out to the public.
If the Democratic Party had not made such an effort since the Vietnam War to identify itself as opposed to America’s position as the world’s only military superpower, it is hard to see any reason why McCain could not be a Democrat. As a career military officer, he was not politically active for most of his early adult life. Certainly his insistence on reducing spending before cutting taxes is something that Democrats also say, with the understanding that they will never reduce spending.
It is ironic that in a campaign where the media have endlessly repeated the assertion that Romney lacks political convictions, it is really McCain who fails to represent the conservative center of the Republican Party. In truth, McCain is much closer to Richard Nixon on the political scale than Reagan. Nixon created the EPA by executive order, and established wage and price controls. He was anti-communist, but not a conservative in 2008 terms on economic or social issues. And, in my own estimation, McCain has shown he is willing to distort the truth when it comes to Romney.
lizzie on 03 Feb 2008 at 11:48 pm #
Lowell,
I can’t agree with you about Huckabee’s motives. Do you realize he was the keynote speaker at the Baptist Anti Mormon conference in SLC a few years back?
Lowell Brown on 03 Feb 2008 at 11:59 pm #
Lizzie: I think Huck’s motives are very suspect, but I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. He is a politician who uses religion cynically, in my view, and my hunch is that his ambition and ego drive him more than bigotry does. But bigotry may have a role.
Grizzly Groundswell » Why I’m Voting for Mitt Romney Today! on 04 Feb 2008 at 9:52 pm #
[...] kind of deal with McCain because he refuses to bash McCain but goes after Romney with a vengeance. This post makes the case for Huckabee being a spoiler and I think its blatantly obvious that at this stage of [...]