A Little More on The Brian Williams Question
In the cool, calm light of morning, after reflecting on the matter and on some intelligent comments from our readers, I want to offer a few more thoughts about yesterday’s excitement (which, for the uninitiated, is available for all to see in my original post and our correction post).
First and most important, I got it wrong and accused Brian Williams, or someone within NBC doing his staff work, of “borderline mendacity,” or coming awfully close to lying, if not lying outright. For that, I simply apologize.
Usually an apology all by itself is all that’s called for in these situations. But since a lot of people, including Hugh Hewitt, relied on my questioning of Williams and NBC, I think further explanation is called for. It’s useful to me, and perhaps interesting to you, to know the origins of yesterday’s posts. Besides, maybe other bloggers will learn from my experience.
Seventy minutes into Thursday night’s Republican debate, I was struck by Williams’ question. (The video of that question, and Romney’s excellent answer, is at the upper right of this blog.) Williams said that in an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that was coming out the next morning, “44 per cent of respondents say a Mormon president would have a difficult time uniting the country.” (Emphasis added.)
As an author of this blog, how could I not try to dig into that remarkable question? I was annoyed that Williams would spring such data on Romney, on live TV, with no opportunity for anyone outside NBC or the Wall Street Journal to know what the poll’s questions actually said, or what the data actually were.
Now, I agree with our thoughtful (if somewhat irritated) commenter “benbo,” who responded to last night’s post:
Romney is leading in the polls. He got a lot more questions and a lot more time than Huckabee did in the debate because if it. This seems like a fair question, albeit somewhat stupid.
Commenter Sherry made the same point, in part. I agree, and believed from the beginning that Williams and Russert were actually doing Romney a favor as a front-runner by throwing all the fastballs they could at him and giving him a chance to hit them. In the MSNBC debate Romney had an opportunity to respond to every major objection his opponents have raised about him — even the snide jabs at his personal wealth.
And yet I had to find out more about that question. (That’s what we do on this blog, folks.) I went straight to the MSNBC page and found their link to the poll. I scoured it for anything related to Williams’ question. Nothing there. I gave up and went to bed.
The next morning I went back and found question 25:
25. One of the goals people have mentioned as important for the next president to have is the ability to unite all Americans around goals and objectives for the country and to reduce the partisan fighting in Congress. I would like to list various presidential candidates. Please tell me whether you feel this person would be very successful, fairly successful, not too successful, or not at all successful in uniting the nation.
Well, that question is about “uniting the nation,” and Romney’s unfavorable numbers did add up to 44%. I assumed, incorrectly, that Question 25 must have been the one Williams was referring to. It never occurred to me that the actual question on which Williams relied on live national TV would not be included in the polling questions and data MSNBC itself released on the night of the televised debate.
And so I wrote my first post yesterday morning, concluding that MSNBC and Williams had some explaining to do. I was busy with work the rest of the day. Later in the evening I happened to see Hugh Hewitt’s retraction, and learned, to my horror, not only that my post was based on false assumptions, but that Hugh had linked to us and had used my material on his radio show.
Ouch.
In the aftermath, I have learned the following and have formed the following questions (and partial answers):
1. The actual polling data and question on which Williams relied are here - not on MSNBC’s site, but the Wall Street Journal’s. My co-blogger John was able to find it, with some difficulty. Go to page 25 of the document; question 24 is the right one. (Subscription may be required.) Here’s the question:
24. We often hear people talk about the importance of unifying the country. Let me read you a series of different kinds of people who might become president. For each one, please tell me whether you feel that a person with this kind of background would make it easier to unite the country, harder to unite the country, or that it would really not make that much difference. *
44% said a person who is “a Mormon” would make harder to unite the country. The rest of the numbers are below.
2. Do I wonder why MSNBC omitted Question 24 on its web site, and made it so hard to find? Yes. Do I really wish they had just published the entire poll? Do I ever!
3. Although I still quibble with Williams’ decision to ask the question of Romney, I recognize that by doing so he gave the Governor a chance to hit the question out of the park, which Romney did.
4. I also quibble with the decision not to highlight the 46% of respondents who said “an evangelical Baptist preacher” would “have a difficult time uniting the country,” to borrow Williams’ spin on the question. But I also recognize that the decision to focus on Romney and Mormonism probably resulted from Romney’s front-runner status, as opposed to Huckabee’s increasingly marginal status.
5. And I quibble with Williams’ characterization of the question. The poll asked:
[P]lease tell me whether you feel that a person with this kind of background would make it easier to unite the country, harder to unite the country, or that it would really not make that much difference.
44% said “a Mormon” fell into the “harder to unite the country” category. From that, Williams got the statement that “44 per cent of respondents say a Mormon president would have a difficult time uniting the country.” There’s some unnecessary spin there.
6. While I’m quibbling: Polling question 24’s use of the words “an evangelical Baptist preacher” and “a Mormon” seems questionable. Those are loaded buzz words to respondents who are not familiar with Baptist preachers and Mormons. But alas, it is simply in the nature of polling, news, and politics to ask such questions and use such words.
Bottom Lines
- I was simply wrong and was too quick on the draw. But I hope it’s understandable how I got there.
- It’s unfortunate that questions about the candidates’ religions still make their way into the major polls and into nationally televised debates, but the reality is that people want to know about Romney’s faith; Williams gave him a chance to address that question, and Romney did so superbly well.
- I think I need to wash Hugh Hewitt’s car for him. By hand. Every week for a month. Do you want ArmorAll on the tires, Hugh?
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One Response to “A Little More on The Brian Williams Question”
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uherx on 27 Jan 2008 at 6:17 am #
How can I NOT question that you have taken the additional time you are afforded(the time between thought and posting) to get this right ? I now have to pose this question each time I log on to your site to read.
My most valuable possession is my time ! the value proposition for my time is accuracy -not speed.
I also now have to question Hugh Hewitt’s snap direction for accuracy.
[Editor’s note: The incorrect post went up at 11:14 a.m. The correction went up at 7:58 p.m., immediately on our discovery of the error. We suggest that this is a much quicker correction than you’re likely to see just about anywhere in the MSM, where sometimes corrections are never issued.]