The Numbers Prove The Point
We have contended here for a long time that the reason “flip-flop” had traction with Romney was because of his faith. We have anecdotal and interview evidence, but never hard numbers, until now:
Bias against Mitt Romney’s religion is one of the reasons that the tag “flip-flopper” sticks with the former Massachusetts governor but not his Republican opponents, according to Vanderbilt political scientist John Geer. “There is no question that Romney has changed his positions on some issues, but so have some of the other candidates,” Geer said. “Why does the label stick to Romney but not his opponents? At least some of the answer lies in Romney’s Mormon beliefs.”
Geer and colleagues Brett Benson of Vanderbilt and Jennifer Merolla of Claremont Graduate University designed an Internet survey to assess bias against Mormons, how best to combat it and its potential impact on the nomination process and general election campaign.
“We find that of those who accuse Romney of flip-flopping, many admit it is Romney’s Mormonism and not his flip-flopping that is the real issue,” Benson said. “Our survey shows that 26 percent of those who accuse Romney of flip-flopping also indicate that Mormonism, not flip-flopping, is their problem with Romney.” Benson noted that the pattern is especially strong for conservative Evangelicals. According to the poll, 57 percent of them have a bias against Mormons.
The key question is how dos Mitt Romney overcome something like this? It is difficult to battle a hidden agenda. By the way, had it been polled, I suspect the “too perfect” thing would be another cover for anti-Mormon bias.
The most pertinent point from my perspective would be that this more or less confirms that an identity-based campaign like Mike Huckabee’s is engaged in “code words” and appealing directly to this bias. Having played in-your-face in Iowa, the direct approach is no longer needed, as the code will suffice.
I am not sure Romney can directly attack something like this himself, but this data can be a potent weapon in the hands of of Romney supporters. Next time someone brings up “flip-flop,” this is permission to respond with “are you a bigot?”
If I thought the other campaigns were gentlemen, a backdoor discussion might be a good idea too, but I don’t see that happening with this bunch.
Thanks to reader Michael Hunsaker for the lead to this data.
Posted in News Media Bias, Political Strategy, Religious Bigotry, Understanding Religion | 2 Comments » | 
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fitzwdarcey on 18 Jan 2008 at 1:22 pm #
Though getting this evidence out may be prudent for Romney supporters, I don’t think openly accussing individuals of being bigots who use the flip flop charge will get them anywhere. Asking that person about the “flip flops” of McCain and most recently off the charts by Huckabee might be a better approach.
David H. Sundwall on 18 Jan 2008 at 3:53 pm #
I agree with the first comment.
There has already been a few examples of accusing Romney critics as anti-Mormon when they disagree with Romney. Unfortunately, there are many other irrational (and some reational) reasons why some don’t like Romney.
It doesn’t do anyone good to conflate the two.
Unless, you can see clear bigotry on display, it’s better not to toy with crying wolf.