Huckabee, McCain, and Romney: The Question Collides with Political Ambition?
If you don’t think The Question has any bearing in Michigan, think again. It will be important for the remainder of the primary season, as long as Huckabee is in the race. And we might have a better idea how it will play after tonight’s Republican debate. Here’s why.
The Huck-McCain Tag Team
Consider this first: Huckabee is McCain’s best friend these days, mainly because he draws religious social conservatives — who are not drawn to McCain — away from Romney. The irrepressible Jonathan Martin of Politico points to the issue we posted about yesterday:
Huck poses two problems for Romney. . . . his vote share of the conservative base of the party — particularly in western Michigan — could come out of Romney’s hide. The conservative Catholics, evangelicals and Dutch Reformed members — some of whom first came to the party in ‘88 when Robertson scored a second-place finish in the state — have somebody who speaks their language about faith and the sanctity of life. And then they have a Mormon. Do the math.
Blunt, but true, in my view. Wherever Huck succeeds, he does so at Romney’s expense and in McCain’s favor. This may be one reason why McCain speaks so highly of Huck while criticizing Romney, as Power Line’s report of a blogger conference call reveals.
Along those lines, Federal Way Conservative wonders: Huckabee - Out to Stop Romney?
Now, when I saw Huckabee campaigning dirty in Iowa, when I see him even today quietly nodding to the anti-Mormon sentiment out there, and otherwise bringing in a complete non-issue into the whole debate, it makes me wonder what he was really trying to accomplish. Did his goals change between then and now? Or does he still want to be president?
Why is it that it seems like Huckabee and McCain are playing tag-team against Romney? Why is it that in states where Huckabee is strong, McCain is nowhere to be found, and states where McCain is winning, Huckabee is strangely absent? Where are the attacks between the two supposed front-runners?
Can The Tag Team Continue?
Ah, but now the Huck-McCain alliance (if there really is one) may be facing some strains. Consider these polling numbers from South Carolina:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain at 27% and Huckabee at 24%.
That’s a significant change since last Sunday. Just before the New Hampshire vote, Huckabee was leading McCain 28% to 21%. In mid-December, Huckabee and Romney were tied for the lead with 23% of the vote while McCain was well off the pace at 12%.
Romney is at 16 percent, Thompson at 12, Giuliani at 6, Paul at 5.
In tonight’s debate, in light of these numbers, do Huck and McCain continue to play tag-team against Mitt? Doubtful - these guys all want to win South Carolina. But Huck would also like to be the vice president, if he can’t win the big prize. He probably thinks McCain’s the most likely candidate to offer that shot to him. (Hmmm. Given McCain’s history of party loyalty, Mike, I’m not sure I’d bet the farm on that one.)
So how do those two play this? Bring some good popcorn to the debate — this one’s going to be fun to watch.
John’s Two Cents: There may be a McCain-Huckabee tag team effect, but there is no team. McCain hates Evangelicals way too much for such a thing. Remember, McCain thinks Evangelicals messed him over in 2000. He will work over Huckabee in a blue minute, at least when he knows he is secure. Wouldn’t that be rich - Evangelicals suckered into irrelevancy by playing identity politics.
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coltakashi on 10 Jan 2008 at 3:17 pm #
Actually, I think Senator McCain’s plan for winning the election is to take advantage of his crossover appeal to Democrats by asking Senator Lieberman to be his vice presidential running mate:
CNN, December 17, 2007: “Sen. Joe Lieberman is crossing party lines and endorsing Republican Sen. John McCain for president.
“Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Connecticut, is endorsing Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, for president.
“‘Being a Republican is important. Being a Democrat is important. But you know what’s more important than that? The interest and well-being of the United States of America,’ the Democrat-turned Independent said in announcing his decision Monday morning in New Hampshire.
“‘Let’s put the United States first again, and John McCain is the man as president who will help us do that,’ he said.
“Lieberman, the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee in 2000, said the next president needs to ‘break through the reflexive partisanship that is poisoning our politics today and stopping us from getting anything done in Washington.’”
This would be sold to the Republican Party as a way to ensure winning the election, offering unity versus division, bipartisanship versus partisanship, and carrying a message of two men who are united in their determination to fight Islamic terrorism. It would dominate the coverage of the convention and the election in a remarkable way. The Democrats could hardly criticize Lieberman as unqualified, since they noiminated him for the same job. And he owes nothing to the national party after they stabbed him in the back in 2006.