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After Iowa: Where Do Identity Politics Go from Here? And Other Thoughts

Posted by: John Schroeder at 12:05 am, January 4th 2008      &mdash      8 Comments »

The first of many answers to THE QUESTION

. . . appears to be a resounding “NO” - at least in Iowa. Just a few weeks ago, George Will said:

If Huckabee succeeds in derailing Romney’s campaign by raising a religious test for presidential eligibility, that will be clarifying: In one particular, America was more enlightened a century ago.

That, frankly is my initial reaction. This is disappointing, not because Mitt Romney did not win, but because of HOW the candidate who won, won.

Lowell proves the point: This Wall Street Journal report was interesting:

Nearly six in 10 GOP voters said they were evangelical or born-again Christians — a huge portion of the electorate — they rallied to Mr. Huckabee. The former Baptist pastor took nearly half of the evangelical votes, with non-evangelicals spreading their support among Mitt Romney and other Republicans in the hunt.

“His belief is my belief,” said Carole Schafer, 79 years old, of Urbandale, who was decked out in a pink jacket as she prepared to caucus for Mr. Huckabee. While she thinks Mr. Romney “looks like a president” and is “qualified,” she had reservations about his Mormonism. “I’m not sure about his faith,” she said.

. . .

Mr. Huckabee’s victory was fueled by voters attracted to his unwavering views on social issues and a God-infused message from the stump. His strong sense of humor, master story telling and populist promise to represent Main Street over Wall Street added to his appeal.

He advertised himself as a consistent conservative and a Christian leader — implicit digs at Mr. Romney, who once held more liberal views on abortion and gay rights and whose Mormonism made some Christians uncomfortable.

Glenn Johnson of the Associated Press makes the story of Iowa pretty clear:

More than half of GOP voters said they were born again or evangelical Christians, and nearly half of them supported Huckabee, according to entrance interviews by The Associated Press and the television networks. Romney led among non-evangelical voters by 2-to-1 or more.

And here’s a breakdown of all the voting. The telling excerpt:

Having a candidate who shared their religious beliefs was important to two-thirds - 67 percent — of voters at the Republican caucuses. Thirty-six percent said it mattered a great deal to their decision on whom to support, and 31 percent said it mattered somewhat.

Among those saying it mattered a great deal, Huckabee trounced his competitors, winning 56 percent of the vote. Only 15 percent of the GOP caucus-goers said a candidate’s religious beliefs did not matter at all. Romney grabbed 40 percent of this group.

Is this not the story of the Iowa caucuses, as far as Romney and The Question are concerned? What a sad commentary on the process. I guess John and I are among that 15 percent who think religious beliefs don’t matter. Shows you how influential we are!

Back to John: Interestingly, this was foreseen. The NYTimes’ Caucus blog seems to have seen it coming, as did the American Spectator. However, both are quick to point out this sets nothing in stone. The Caucus notes:

Pat Robertson, the televangelist, received about one-quarter of the vote in the 1988. In 2000, two outspoken long-shot Christian conservative candidates — Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes — together pulled in more than 20 percent of the vote.

Out-of-proportion religion based votes in Iowa are common and often not predictive for the rest of the nation; this one is significant because of the margins. What was different this time? I don’t think it is Huckabee; I fear the difference is reactionary, a vote against, not a vote for. The question is is it a vote against “business as usual,” which Romney represents, or a Mormon candidate - or is the latter hiding behind the former?

The Spectator points out that anti-Mormon issues just don’t add up:

THE ONLY PROBLEM with those fears is that they don’t add up. Evangelicals may be surprised to learn that the growth of church membership in Massachusetts slowed substantially during Romney’s tenure as governor. In fact, one could make the absurdly simplistic argument that Romney was bad for Mormonism.

The Iowa outcome, however, is visceral as best as I can tell. Facts do not seem to matter in this one. I have hoped that reason would prevail when it came to the voting booth, but then we have not been in a booth yet, a caucus is a different animal entirely. Time will tell.

Lowell: I saw poll numbers (which I am still trying to find on-line) showing that only 10% of those who voted for Huckabee actually think he is qualified to be president. If that’s true, it certainly add weight to John’s argument that the one-third of Iowans who voted for Huckabee did so viscerally.

Susan Estrich makes the point that matters most. But then Howard Dean was a Republican dream too.

Lowell: Al Mohler and Hugh Hewitt had this interesting exchange on Hugh’s show Thursday, before the Iowa results came in:

HH: [W]hat do you make of the identity politics of Mike Huckabee? And do you actually think it’s fair to call them identity politics?

AM: Well, I think insofar as he’s used to the kind of Evangelical symbolism and language so clearly, there’s an aspect of identity politics there, undeniably. . . .

HH: [D]oes it make you uneasy, or are you glad that Evangelicals, whether you agree with them or don’t agree with them, are in the process in this manner?

AM: Well, I’m very thankful that he’s an Evangelical Christian. As an Evangelical Christian, I’m very thankful that Mike Huckabee is very public about his professed faith in the Lord Jesus Christ. I am very uncomfortable with having a candidate identified as an Evangelical candidate. I just don’t think that’s the appropriate kind of political engagement.

HH: Why?

AM: Well, let’s put it this way. Evangelical Christians are very much committed to a Christian worldview that reaches every aspect of life. But there really isn’t an Evangelical foreign policy. There’s really not an Evangelical tariff or tax policy. And I think when everything’s identified that way, well, I’m going to be honest, there’s a bit of self-protectionism here.

HH: Yup.

AM: I don’t want to get blamed for everything that a supposedly Evangelical president might do that in terms of policy would be disagreeable.

Reason, thy name is Al Mohler.

I am also wondering about South Carolina. Now, that’s a month away on Super Tuesday, but Romney’s not going anywhere before then, and he and all the leading candidates will pick up delegates along the way. Hugh Hewitt:

Romney wins some delegates tonight and keeps winning them in batches as the weeks unfold. in Wyoming, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. So does McCain. So does Fred. So does Huck.

Will South Carolina Republican Evangelicals vote as viscerally as they did in Iowa? K-Lo asked Katon Dawson, the Chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, Is there any hope for a Mormon in your state? Especially now?” His response:

As I have said before, our party has a proud tradition of being inclusive. Our candidates have never shied away from talking about their faith, and they shouldn’t start now. Each Republican candidate for president, including Governor Romney, has candidly and passionately discussed the role faith plays in their lives. I hope they continue to keep faith as an important part of the public discourse during this election.

Notice the complete non-answer there. I know polls show Romney at or near the lead in South Carolina, but they showed the same close race in Iowa. I am not very optimistic that South Carolina Evangelicals will be any more enlightened than their brethren in Iowa.

Scandal News . . .

Captain Ed points out the the push-polling trail is still warm and being followed.

Moore Information hired Western Wats; who hired Moore Information? Jim Geraghty has its client list in politics, and it looks pretty exclusively Republican. They mostly do work in the interior West, with a lot of Idaho, Montana, Washington, and Oregon officeholders and candidates on the list. The only current presidential candidate on the list, though, is Ron Paul. Geraghty mentioned this during today’s Heading Right Radio show, but it’s not exactly conclusive linkage to the push polling.

And this is a dirty trick against Huckabee, although I personally think he has skirted the IRS line pretty closely. Anonymous letters for pure intimidation are out-of-line. If there is evidence of a crime, take it to the IRS; otherwise, let it go.

In Utah it seems like the LDS had their own version of Huckabee in the governor’s office. SIGH!

And yet…

Some journalists cannot resist writing the same story we have read many times before.

Lowell adds, finally: Geraghty complains about the attention Iowa gets every four years:

The evidence is building that the tastes of Iowa may be wildly divergent from the tastes of the country as a whole, and that the political system is tiring of catering to the quirky idiosyncrasies of a relative handful of committed partisans.

Is Iowa a non-predictor this time too? As always, time will tell. I still think that going forward, to the extent Huckabee succeeds, his only real impact on the race will be to keep Romney from succeeding, without Huck winning either. Romney lost Iowa, yes; but the margin was much worse for him than anyone expected. Without Huck in the race, Romney wins Iowa easily and is cruising toward New Hampshire. As it is, Romney’s now unexpectedly wounded, and McCain had already pushed ahead of him in New Hampshire. In my view, the Huckaboom has served primarily to ignite a divisive religious fight in the GOP, to bring out in the open ugly bigotry, and perhaps to drive from the race a good man. A pox upon the Huckaboom, and upon identity politics in the Republican party.

John has some late additions: The lead story in the Examiner is that this was all about identity politics:

Evangelical Republicans in Iowa chose one of their own in Mike Huckabee.

Peggy Noonan sees much the same thing but points out the problem:

They believe that Mr. Huckabee, the minister who speaks their language, shares, down to the bone, their anxieties, concerns and beliefs. They fear that the other Republican candidates are caught up in a million smaller issues–taxing, spending, the global economy, Sunnis and Shia–and missing the central issue: again, our culture. They are populists who vote Republican, and as I have read their letters, I have felt nothing but respect.

But there are two problems. One is that while the presidency, as an office, can actually make real changes in the areas of economic and foreign policy, the federal government has a limited ability to change the culture of America. That is something conservatives used to know. Second, I’m sorry to say it is my sense that Mr. Huckabee is not so much leading a movement as riding a wave. One senses he brilliantly discerned and pursued an underserved part of the voting demographic, and went for it. Clever fellow. To me, the tipoff was “Don’t Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?”

There is a very deep wisdom in there. I like all my creedal Christian brethren feel a need to address the cultural shifts in this nation. But I know I cannot fix it with my vote. What is worse, if I spend my religious energies on politics trying to change culture, those energies are not available to do the real work - the work of, frankly, the church.

Government can set the table, that is to say remove obstacles from the church attempting to achieve it’s goals. Have you ever had a meal with a beautiful and well set table where the food was less than adequate? It is highly disappointing and unsatisfying. I have also had marvelous meals at tables that were wholly inadequate. These were less than ideal but delicious and satisfying. Just a metaphor for pondering.

Kim Strassel pits out the political ramifications:

The Republican coalition has also had its long share of stress between its cultural and more libertarian factions. That tension flared most brightly under Pat Buchanan, with his fiery call to abandon globalization and revert to a blend of cultural conservatism and economic populism. Yet the coalition endured. Mike Huckabee is the latest (if subtler) incarnation of this, and Mr. Rollins has every reason to offer a premature Reagan-coalition surrender, since his guy doesn’t fit the mold. Then again, Mr. Huckabee’s dipping poll numbers in recent weeks suggest that as Republican voters learn about him, they may not like what they see.

The real question for those Republicans arguing for revolution is this: Which leg of the stool do they kick out, and how do they then keep standing?

The problem I see is that, in Iowa anyway, the cultural faction has its cultural concerns and religious faith so tightly wound in a ball that it cannot separate them. That could give Huckabee a more lasting impact, or it could mean that the cultural faction is the one that gets kicked out…
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8 Responses to “After Iowa: Where Do Identity Politics Go from Here? And Other Thoughts”

  1. HaroldHutchison on 04 Jan 2008 at 12:21 am #

    “No Mormons Need Apply” is the message that has effectively been sent out by the GOP activists when it comes to the Presidency. It’s patently obvious when you look at what Joe Carter told you and what was reported on Huckabee’s official site.

    We will see this happen in South Carolina as well - the Mormon-baiting has been plentiful from Cyndi Mosteller and Huckabee will use it again as well - after all, Iowa has just proved that it works.

    The politics of religious identity has trumped perhaps the best resume/track record on the GOP side. That is how it is.

    It may be time for me to re-think my affiliation with the GOP.

  2. David H. Sundwall on 04 Jan 2008 at 10:38 am #

    Utah doesn’t exactly have its own Mormon Huckabee. That article discusses then-Gov. Leavitt who is now Sec. Leavitt at HHS.

    Back when he was governor in Utah, he had private scripture study sessions with aides on how to better communicate policy.

    I won’t defend that as it still may sound creepy but there was never any public invocation of scripture or Mormon morality. I think it’s a far cry from what Huckabee does.

    I just wanted to clarify that the article wasn’t about the current Utah governor.

  3. saran on 04 Jan 2008 at 11:46 am #

    I am a new reader to this blog - love it so far - someone who is putting things in one place.

    I have to say that the Huckabee/Romney thing has brought my focus back to the ‘08 campaign from the “glazed-over, bored” feeling of indifference I’ve had. Both have made my blood boil at one point or another.

    Have either of you heard about this film? Article VI: Faith, Politics, America http://www.articlevithemovie.com/ Would be interested in your insights about it. It looks to be something that is doing just what you’re doing - delving into the relevancy and impact of Article VI on the ‘08 election and Americans today.

  4. Authenticity on 04 Jan 2008 at 1:27 pm #

    What we missed was the individual effects from Huckabee’s successful transition from strict identity to the broader David/Goliath establishment argument. This not only intensified the us vs. them schism, but effectively leveraged the Romney ad campaign to their own ends, galvanizing the notion that “Huck’s in trouble” and we owe him our support. Simply put, his very human story arc trumped the issues arguments, and it should have been foreseen and diffused by the Romney camp.

    In the end, let’s also realize that it took a relatively small percentage of Romney’s lukewarm Evangelical support to turn, as every conquest percent widens the apparent gulf by twice that margin.

  5. Ralph on 04 Jan 2008 at 2:00 pm #

    John and Lowell:

    The original purpose of Article VI Blog, as I understand it, was to fight the tendency in this Presidential election to impose a faith test for the Office of the Presidency, in particular to combat the argument that Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith somehow disqualified him. And, indeed, Mike Huckabee has engaged in some swarmy tactics to remind voters that his most serious opponent in Iowa was a Mormon.

    However, that is a very different proposition from “identity politics,” the very real phenomenon that voters tend to identify with a candidate who shares important aspects of their own personalities, philosophies and outlook. I suspect that Huckabee would have commanded as large a following among Iowa evangelical Christians even if he had never engaged in any Mormon-baiting. Those Iowa voters took a good look at Huckabee and Romney and decided that they identified more and were more comfortable with Huckabee.

    Indeed, I would argue that the lack of voter identification with Romney had as much to do with his super-successful life story as it did with his religion. Mitt Romney has succeeded at nearly everything he has ever done. He was born into privilege, he concurrently earned business and law degrees from Harvard, he made millions in business and he became governor of Massachusetts (hardly an identity factor for Iowa voters). His life does not remotely resemble theirs. He does not talk or look like them any more than does Al Gore or John Kerry.

    Huckabee on the other hand was born into poverty and his campaign biography emphasizes his triumph over over-eating. The Iowans looked at him and saw themselves, and voted accordingly.

    Frankly, that is so much a fact of life that I don’t think you can make a principled objection to it. It explains why voters loved Bill Clinton but don’t like Hillary Clinton. It explains why Hillary Clinton does well with one demographic group–older well-educated women. It explains why Obama will be able to garner much of the African American vote.

    And frankly, Lowell, it explains why so many Mormons are working for the election of Mitt Romney. Yes, I know (and indeed have written on our blog) that not all Mormons are conservatives or Republicans, but it cannot be denied that many, many Mormon Republicans back this particular candidate because he is a Mormon Republican. One can’t criticize identity politics when practiced by evangelical Chrisitians but ignore it when practiced by Mormons.

    Identity politics becomes a problem when it leads to the election of unqualified candidates, or to the defeat of one’s party at the polls. That may yet be the case with Mike Huckabee. Nonetheless, railing against identity politics is like railing against the color of the sky. It just is.

  6. fitzwdarcey on 04 Jan 2008 at 2:54 pm #

    “And in despair, I bowed my head. There is no peace on earth I said. For hate is strong and mocks the song of peace on earth good will to men.”

    Mike Huckabee said he would discuss his own faith but not the faith of other candidates. He then put out the loaded question of whether or not the CJCLDS believes that Jesus and Satan are brothers. There is no rational explanation for doing that especially given that he said he would not discuss the faith of another candidate. He never really got hammered for it. He apologized to Romney but to none of the other millions he offended or to the American people for his dishonesty. Romney was gracious and didn’t make an issue of it. In fact, many would call his behaviour, Christian. But wait, it is Romney that is the dishonest one.

    I am more sad than I can say reading the exit poll results and seeing the identity politics at work here. I really believed that America was better than this, and as a member of the LDS Church, I feel very shocked and very let down.

    There is a commenter on one Hugh Hewitt’s posts today that states that the Christian coalition is the most important part of the conservative coalition and that cultists are outliers. I am beginning to believe it is true, and I truly believe that will split the Republican party.

  7. coltakashi on 04 Jan 2008 at 3:14 pm #

    The Iowa caucus demonstrates that the baloney attacks on Romney about alleged integrity shortfalls are no more than camouflage for fear of his religion. Voters don’t trust Romney because they don’t trust Mormons; all other candidates would be given the benefit of the doubt when they explain the reasons for their views, but Romney starts from a public perception deficit because of over a century of “Christian” ministers indoctrinating their members about the Mormon “cult”. They claim he is not honest because he will not admit that his church is a cult and he doesn’t really worship Jesus. If he claims he is a follower of Christ, they say he is lying. The problem is not with the integrity of Romney, but of the hatred and lies about Mormons that have become fundamental features of so much Christian discourse.

    The Iowa caucus results point out the political differences between Mormons and Evangelicals. While the LDS Church is “hierarchical” it studiously avoids taking sides on partisan issues; it is very conscious of being an international organization that cannot presume to direct or speak for its members in 175 nations, let alone in the US. On the other hand, the Southern Baptist convention recently issued another one of its anti-Mormon publications to ministers. Evangelical ministers seem to feel free to endorse or denigrate specific candidates, without fear of the IRS questioning their tax exempt status. A Mormon who tried to use his membership credentials to differentiate himself would be rejected by Mormons for violating church policy. A Baptist who trades on his identity as a pastor to win votes is considered just to be a smart politician.

    The part that is most distressing here is that so many people seem to have lost sight of how a political party is supposed to be distinct from a religious organization. It is supposed to be organized around common policy goals, a compact of mutual support to candidates who are pledged to support those goals if elected. The large block of voters in Iowa who supported Reverend Huckabee because of their identification with his religion have lost sight of what the political party is supposed to be about, an enterprise in inclusiveness that seeks to include a majority of people with disparate characteristics based on their common goals.

    When people vote for a candidate on the grounds that he is expected to enact government policies that advance one religious viewpoint over all others then they are in fact supporting theocracy. It is no different than Muslims in Afghanistan seeking to enact Islamic shari’a as their statutory law. It is theocracy, plain and simple.

    If they want to have a “Christian Party”, they should go off and do so, telling everyone that this is their goal. To hijack the Republican primary in order to advance the narrow concerns of one faction rather than the common interest of the party is fundamentally dishonest. It is indeed fundamentally un-Christian.

    It is just as un-Christian as a person trumpeting that he is literally “holier than thou” as a basis for being elected. That kind of vanity about righteousness was denounced as hypocrisy by Jesus. The hatred that Pharisees had toward the “heretical” Samaritans of their day was also denounced by Jesus as a violation of God’s commandment to “love thy neighbor”. While Michael Novak, a Catholic, is demonstrably aware of this, it appears that Evangelicals who worry about actually following Jesus are few on the ground in Iowa, and the news media are too ignorant of the Bible to notice and point it out in their stories. Newsweek can make hay in its cover story about Romney for not living up to their odd expectations of what a Mormon is supposed to be, but they don’t seem to have the foggiest notion how a real Christian is supposed to behave. They don’t understand the difference between a pastor who calls people to come to Christ, and a pastor who calls on Christians to follow HIM, the minister.

    Perhaps it is related to the fact that many Evangelical churches rely so much more on the personality of individual pastors rather than a body of common doctrine. In that way, Evangelical churches much more resemble their own definition of “cult” than Mormons do. Mormons attend the church they are assigned to on a geographic basis regardless of how boring a speaker the bishop is. Most of the sermons are given by random members of the congregation. You will get the same kind of median quality experience no matter where you attend Sunday meetings. Mormon loyalty to their church is not based on someone else’s personality, but on convictions about doctrines. So Mormons like Romney do not practice personal charisma in connection with their worship.

    The bottom line is that the Republican Party cannot win national elections by becoming the Evangelical Christian Party. Huckabee’s effort to convert the GOP into the ECP could serve to ensure defeat in the November elections, both for president and Congress. He is a divider, not a uniter.

  8. CarlH on 04 Jan 2008 at 3:14 pm #

    Given some of the quirkiness of the Iowa caucuses–let alone the frequency with which winners there fail to go on to win nominations (and often even very few subsequent primary contests), the willingness of so many pundits to say Romney’s chances are gone is more than a little surprising. Part of what I think we are seeing is the “frontrunner effect” in which everyone else betters themselves by ganging up on the frontrunner, but that strategy has to be abandoned eventually.

    I agree with Lowell that it is not the result that is disheartening about the Iowa caucus, but how Huckabee emerged belatedly (unlike Robertson in 2000) and then parlayed the indentity politics–disingenuously denied–to a victory, with very little MSM scrutiny or condemnation of his tactics. I also share Lowell’s concern about where his campaign goes from here, especially in South Carolina in the immediate future and in much of the south and midwest thereafter, assuming that he continues to survive.

    Politically, I’m a constitutional and fiscal conservative first, a social conservative second, and a Republican third. (My LDS faith, as well as the religion of any candidate, is pretty much incidental). In Huckabee I don’t see much of a fiscal or constitutional conservative, despite his social conservative bona fides. More frighteningly, I worry that his campaign tack, if it continues to be as laden with religious rhetoric and divisiveness, may rupture the delicate alliance of social and fiscal conservatives that has given the Republican Party a coalition strong enough to contend with the Democrats. If Huckabee is, as Susan Estrich now famously said the other night, the “Democrats’ dream candidate”, he might just as easily become the Republican’s “nightmare candidate.” He–perhaps even more than Pres. Bush–could become the incarnation of the leftists’ cartoon caricature of the “religious right.” While Huckabee seems to have gotten a bit of a free ride about his religion-drenched campaign in Iowa, while the MSM continue to give him a pass, especially if the religious attack has indeed been successful in completely derailing Romney’s campaign? Hard to believe.

    For what it’s worth, among friends and other LDS voters whose reactions to the Huckabee boom and then victory in Iowa I’ve observed, there seems to be a growing anger that Mormon Republicans, who have pretty much seen themselves as a reliable and activist part of the “religious right,” have now been told that they’re not the “right religious right” with serious reservations about where their support ought to go–if anywhere. Having the MSM trash your religion day in and day out is one thing, it’s quite another to be expected to buck up and support someone in your own party who has made his name by playing on the trashing. Where will the Mormon vote go? From what I’ve seen the past two weeks, it will not go to Huckabee. McCain–with his own anti-Mormon shenigans–would also have a big handicap. Giuliani? Talk about having to hold one’s nose! Thompson, maybe? But does he even have a chance? Of course, having LDS voters sit out an election would hardly have the same impact as evangelicals sitting out an election, but the fallout will be interesting to watch.

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WELL DONE GOVERNOR ROMNEY


Thank you for an incredible journey!