Lowell Kicks us off…
When A Negative Isn't Such A Bad Thing
Writing in Opinion Journal's Political Diary (subscription required), Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics analyzes Romney's candidacy in a totally refreshing way. His subject? The negative effects of both Romney's and Giuliani's attacks on one another:
According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, taken last Friday through Sunday, Mr. Giuliani's unfavorable rating shot up nine points in ten days, while Mr. Romney's jumped eight points. Add the drop in their favorable ratings over the same period and Mr. Giuliani suffered a net 14-point decline in his favorability rating in the last two weeks. Mr. Romney's favorability dropped 11 points.
Why is this refreshing? Because it respectfully analyzes the tactics of two candidates as serious contenders, and it discusses Romney's negatives, with nary a word about religion. (John interjects: Well sort of Lowell. Same day at the RCP Blog, Bevan says religion still is an issue.) I suspect this focus on real issues will become more and more prevalent as the field separates. Now that Sam Brownback is out, his supporters will divide between Romney and Huckabee (Giuliani certainly won't get many of them), with the more victory-oriented supporters flocking to Romney. Only a few will go to Thompson, who has not distinguished himself as a candidate attractive to the family-values voters who supported Brownback.
I know that's more political analysis than we usually do on this blog, but it's relevant because Romney's emergence as a serious candidate - one of the top two or three - also heralds the subordination of religious questions to questions of policy and the candidates' capability to implement policy.In other words, in the short term Romney's faith will recede into the background. If he's the GOP nominee, of course, Team Clinton will use religion in ugly and perhaps effective ways. But that's a story for later.
Late update by Lowell: Bevan's post, which John refers to above, deserves more comment. First, it brings a smile to me when I read Bevan quote analysts of an Insider Advantage poll:
[B]y calling attention to the former Massachusetts' governor's religion, the endorsement of Bob Jones III, chancellor of the fundamentalist Christian university in Greenville which bears his name, could have hurt Romney more than it helped him.
Don't you love this combination of tea leaf reading and inside baseball? I would think that maybe the punditocracy could acknowledge that it will take time before the effect of these endorsements is truly felt, but I think it is hard for them to do that; they love their narrative so.
Second, Romney may well give a religion-oriented speech, as Bevan suggests. But does anyone agree with me that the dynamics of such a speech, if given, are forever changed by the burst of high-level evangelical support for Romney?
And John takes over…
Lowell and I both find ourselves on the road, skipping time zones like stones on a pond, confused about days, times, and cities. But this may be perhaps the "busiest" time this blog has seen. I grow increasingly certain that this period will end up being viewed as the climax of The Question for the primary. With that, let's dive in:
Endorsements, The Avalanche Continues…
First in his own Townhall column, and then on Hugh Hewitt's radio show, Dr. Wayne Grudem announces his support for Romney. Grudem may not be a name that will readily rolls off of political tongues across the nation, but his influence on American evangelicalism is HUGE! To serious students of evangelical theology, Grudem is in "the pantheon." The introductory portion of the Hewitt interview establishes the bona fides:
HH: It’s been an incredible week for Mitt Romney. He’s achieved a breakthrough of sorts in the Evangelical community, even among the very conservative fundamentalist community, people who were not thought to be favoring him because of his Mormon religion. And today, in an op-ed that will be widely circulated among the senior Evangelical leadership in the United States, Professor Wayne Grudem, who’s a professor at Phoenix Seminary, endorses Mitt Romney’s candidacy. To let you know why this is significant, Dr. Grudem is perhaps one of the best well-known theologians in the United States. He’s a former president of the Evangelical Theological Society, and I think probably his textbook is more widely used in seminaries across the United States than any other. Dr. Grudem joins me now from Phoenix. Dr. Grudem, good to have you on.
WG: Thank you, Hugh.
HH: What is that textbook? What’s the title of that one which is everywhere?
WG: Systematic Theology.
HH: And when did that come out?
WG: ’94.
HH: And so this…is that the best selling theological textbook in America?
WG: Well, it does pretty well.
HH: All right, that’s a good thing to say. Modesty befits you. Dr. Grudem,…
Grudem begins his column by summarizing his conclusions:
As an evangelical professor of Bible and theology, I have decided to support Mitt Romney for President (even though he is a Mormon) for two old-fashioned reasons: First, he is the best-qualified candidate, and second, he holds moral and political values consistent with those in the Bible.
It is highly significant to note that as perhaps the most influential theologian alive today, Grudem focuses not on theology in making his decision, but on values, even if they result from a different theology. Grudem does an excellent job of explaining and defending himself. I urge all interested parties to read through the links above.
Also, another fairly huge endorsement picked up yesterday. The Brody file:
…Dr. Don Wilton, Senior Pastor At The First Baptist mega Church Of Spartanburg, South Carolina and former President of the South Carolina Baptist Convention has endorsed Mitt Romney.
And our old friend Kevin McCollough continues to warm to Romney, while emphasizing the theological distinctives. These posts make me smile as they show the basic irrelevancy of theology in politics. They bash Joel Osteen's theology (I told you before he had a problem) while confessing affection for a Mormon for president. Stuff like this really makes me love America. It is us and religion and politics at our finest.
Meanwhile, Lowell and I have pointed out that things could get ugly in the general. Here's proof, a press release from the DNC regarding the Bob Jones endorsements. I hope they get smarter before this is over. Simple name-calling just is not going to cut it.
All this and yet some commentators…
still don't get it. Something called the Southern Political Report, sort of stutters, "But the polls, the polls . . . ." Way back more than a year ago, when only total political geeks like Lowell and myself paid any attention to this stuff, we quoted Kathryn Jean Lopez (sorry folks, in election time it is far too old to dig up the link in our archives, particularly when Lowell and I are as time confused as we are - use our search feature) on something along the lines of this: The polls ask about a generic Mormon, but it is Mitt Romney that is running. If Romney wins, I bet the polls, if conducted sufficiently after the election when the buzz has died, and asked in exactly the same way, will not move all that much.
Roger Simon insists the problem remains, and looks again to a speech. Does Romney really need a speech when he has the likes of Bob Jones III, Wayne Grudem, James Bopp, Jay Sekulow, and Mark DeMoss doing it for him? Come on Roger?!
But then the uptick in "speech talk"…
is probably because of the big Voters Values Summit this weekend which Romney will address. His planned remarks have been released and depending on your viewpoint, they either emphasize the commonalities Evangelicals and Mormons share, or they are disappointing because Romney is refusing to start an in-depth religious discussion, which would spark some sort of mini-religious war in the nation.
Ann Romney says a speech is still under consideration. Of course, Mitt is not a guy that would take any option off the table until he had to; smart leaders are like that.
You do know the opposition wants that religious mini-war during the primaries…
– don't you? As evidence, consider this Examiner piece "Religious Conservatives Face Hard Choices." As we see a religious voters consensus begin to emerge behind the Romney candidacy (it was inevitable after the Thompson belly-flop, I think) we may see more pieces like this. It is in the opposition's best interest to have a hotly contested primary - it weakens the candidates' initial position as the general starts.
If Romney manages to solidify his creedal Christian support in the next few weeks, and I think he will, I predict we will see more pieces like this one, trying to destabilize that foundation. For one thing, the press will just hate to have been proven so wrong, and for another, there is that whole MSM bias question.
Finally…
John McCain is genuine American hero, but he will never figure out the religious voter.
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