Baffled or Serious?

Reid Wilson does another analysis of South Carolina (we saw one a couple of weeks ago) and he never mentions The Question.  South Carolina is supposed to be the religious showdown in the Republican primary.  What's up?  Is it as Charles Mitchell contended back in July, that the "flip-flop" thing has enough traction that opponents don't need to take the risk of the religious angle?  Well, that is certainly what Wilson's analysis would contend.  But I don't think Wilson has an axe to grind, he is doing straight analysis.

So again, I wonder why the issue isn't coming up any more?  Do we indeed have a tacit admission that The Question just something to talk about and never serious?

There Is Evidence…

New Pew Poll

Highlights and numbers from a Pew Forum survey released today on Americans’ views of Islam and Mormonism. Read the full report here.

 

[…]

 

“Overall, a slim majority of the public (53 percent) expresses a favorable view of Mormons, while 27 percent view Mormons unfavorably.”

Hmmmm . . . .

LOWELL:  This is an interesting graph: 

“When asked to describe their impression of the Mormon religion in a single word, somewhat more offer a negative word than a positive one (27 percent versus 23 percent); 19 percent give a neutral descriptor. The most common negative word expresses is ‘polygamy,’ including ‘bigamy or some other reference to plural marriage (75 total responses), followed by ‘cult’ (57 total mentions). But while many think of polygamy when they think of Mormonism, nearly as many think of ‘family’ or ‘family values’ (74 total mentions).”

This is not surprising at all, and seems to support what we have been saying here for a long time:  If Romney were to begin addressing his religious beliefs, he would take on the burden of clearing up all those stubborn misconceptions about Mormonism.  No single person can accomplish that, no presidential candidate has ever been asked to do such a thing, and any candidate would certainly fail in the attempt.  At the same time, Romney and his family do embody those favorable impressions of Mormons that the Pew poll detects.  He has been focusing on helping people feel comfortable with him and with his values, rather than with his  theology, and that strategy, so far, has been working.

And Yet…

In early September, The Chronicle of Higher Education printed a summary of academic comment on The Question, only now available as a free link.  What is interesting is it is all conjecture.  When it comes down to votes being cast, admittedly straw polls, Romney seems to be performing pretty doggone well.

I think one thing is for sure, recent developments, or rather the lack thereof, do in fact indicate a tacit admission that Romney's religion is a somehow unsavory issue.  That does not mean it will not surface again, I'm thinking we can bet on it.  If Romney loses, the conjecture will be back.  If he wins the underground attacks will surface.

But this period, the period where the primaries first turned serious, should be remembered for its sobriety on The Question.

LOWELL:  Agreed.  It has been a remarkably calm period.  Look for The Question to recede as Romney is continually seen as a contender.  My crystal ball tells me this, however:  The Question will come up every time anyone does an analysis of South Carolina and as that primary gets closer.  If Romney doesn't do well there, The Question will be mentioned as a factor (probably regardless of any polling data).  And, if Romney is the GOP nominee, The Question will come up once again, not from the Clinton campaign directly, but from Democratic operatives like Garry South and from their Greek chorus in the MSM (think, for example, Jacob Weisberg and Michael Kinsley).

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