Article VI Blog

John and I have wondered here about the origin of The Mormon Question. Is is really something voters have on their minds? Or is it more a creation of the punditocracy, at least to a significant extent?

John's post below points out that sometimes Mormons "plant 'The Question' in the minds of others that might not have asked it." I think this is undeniably true, in large part for the reasons I discuss in John's post.

I think the news media and assorted pundits also raise the question. Consider an example from a Republican primary election in California's 50th Congressonal District (in San Diego) last spring. John McIntyre of Real Clear Politics wrote in the March 30, 2006 edition of Opinion Journal's Political Diary, a subscription e-mail service:

Meanwhile, there are 14 Republicans in the race, but polls have consistently given only three candidates a legitimate shot at winning the pro-GOP vote: Brian Bilbray, Howard Kaloogian and Eric Roach. Mr. Bilbray is an ex-Congressman from the more Democratic 49th Congressional district who lost his job to Rep. Susan Davis in 2000 and is considered the establishment candidate. Mr. Kaloogian is a former state assemblyman (1994-2000) from within the district and is the leading movement conservative in the race. Mr. Roach, a Mormon, is a venture capitalist and political neophyte who appears to be making headway thanks to his ability to outspend his main rivals.

"Mr. Roach, a Mormon." He is the only candidate whose religion is noted. What would your reaction have been if McIntyre had written, "Mr. Bilbray, a Catholic," or "Mr. Kaloogian, a member of the Armenian Church of America?" Although I happen to be a Mormon and am active in California GOP politics, I had never heard of Mr. Roach until I read McIntyre's piece March 30. Unless Roach was running as a Mormon or was somehow emphasizing his religious faith, or his opponents were making an issue of Mormonism, I am at a loss to understand why McIntyre inserted that seemingly gratuitous bit of information.

Incidentally, there have been multiple-term Mormon congressmen from San Diego County in the past. No one seemed to notice, and I imagine pundits did not mention those congressmen's religious affiliation as a noteworthy distinguishing characteristic.

By the way, I am a long-time devoted daily reader and admirer of John McIntyre's work. I think he simply misfired here. His piece is an example of how even well-meaning, intelligent pundits can introduce "The Question" when it probably would not even come up otherwise. McIntyre's misfire is also an interesting example of the way pundits think: They analyze elections to a fare-thee-well.

In a private e-mail McIntyre assured me he meant no offense, and I believe him. He was a class act. He also told me that the San Diego race was so close, he felt Mr. Roach's religion may have an impact. Fair enough. I still wonder: Isn't McIntyre planting the issue in voters' minds by raising it that way?

About a month ago John and I commented quite vigorously on another McIntyre post, this time in Real Clear Politics, in which he stated that "[i]f the Mormon issue wasn’t floating around in the background, [Romney] would almost certainly be the clear frontrunner for the nomination." As my blogging partner John pointedly noted:

Everybody loves Romney, then comes one of Laura Ingraham’s “But…Monkeys.” “Can a Mormon get elected?” Nobody actually knows, but they have to ask. I truly wonder if it has occurred to anybody that the mere asking creates and fuels the issue - an issue is, after all, a question the political process seeks to answer.

Again, I have no desire to single out John McIntyre. This is not about him. He is one of the most prominent national campaign-watchers, and simply happens to provide two excellent examples of what has become an almost knee-jerk thought process (if one can call a thought process "knee-jerk") about Romney's Mormon religion and its potential impact in 2008.

Maybe, before tossing The Question into the next piece they write about Romney, pundits need to pause and ask themselves another question: "Is this really an issue, or am I just helping to make it one?"

John Schroeder, would you like to weigh in?

John adds: I spent a lot on my energy on this when we posted last time on a McIntyre piece. As I said in my post yesterday, I have no doubt there are people in this world to whom Romney, or any other Mormon candidate's religion is going to matter hugely. But that fact in an of itself has no political significance.

For it to matter politically, we need to first know how many such people there are. Well, we know the oft-quoted 37% will-not-vote number which is enough to raise the question, but it still is not enough information to know if there is true political signifigance here. We need to know who these people are - are they likely voters? - their party affiliations if any - are there issues that could outweigh this concern? Only then, with the answers to these questions and related ones can we know for certain that there is a genuine political issue here.

Do you remember that guy in high school? You know the one, no sports, didn't give a rip about cars, never dated. Everybody liked him, but he was just a little "different." Eventually, somebody said, "Gee I wonder if he's gay?" They didn't know, they just wondered, and now so did everyone else at the lunch table. Pretty soon everyone in school is asking and the poor guy has gone from everybody's friend to social outcast. Now, there was sufficient basis to wonder if the guy was gay, that's not the point - the point is that by wondering out loud a de facto whispering campaign was begun, effectively labeling the guy when there was nowhere near enough evidence for the label to actually be applied. [Editorial aside: this guy from my high school is now married (to a WOMAN) with 2 kids]

In the face of the frequency with which the question is raised, I am forced to one of three possible conslusions

All the questions I asked above have been answered somewhere in some poll that humble blogs like this one are not allowed access to, and there is a real and legitimate issue here.
Pundits of all stripes desperately need something to talk about, and lack either the energy or the resources to find the answers to these question, so they ask the question over and over just to fill space, not realizing the net result is a de facto whispering campaign.
There is a real, intentional whispering campaign at work in the punditry - in which case SHAME. Republicans and conservatives are supposed to be better than such tactics. If you have a problem with Romney - be straightforward with it.

This blog has been working as hard as it possibly can to answer the detailed questions that matter so much here - to find if there really is an issue or not. We do not have near the resources of those we so often link to that are asking "The Question." I wish that instead of asking, they would join us in trying to find some answers.

Technorati Tags: Romney, Mormon, Mormonism, religious bigotry, news media bias, John McIntyre, Eric Roach